Smoking follows education, not geography
Across US counties, the share of adults who smoke falls steeply as the share with a college degree rises.
Counties with higher Bachelor’s Degree or Higher tend to have lower Adults Who Smoke.
Very strong link: a correlation of −0.75 across 2,916 counties.CorrelationHow closely two metrics move together, from −1 to +1. Near +1: both rise together. Near −1: one rises as the other falls. Near 0: no clear link.More in the glossary →
Smoking used to be common across every group. Today it is concentrated where fewer adults have a college degree, which this county-level view makes plain.
Each dot in the chart is one of 2,916 counties. The correlation between Bachelor’s Degree or Higher and Adults Who Smoke is -0.75, a very strong relationship: about 56% of the differences in Adults Who Smoke from place to place line up with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher. Ranked instead of measured, the link is -0.79.
The highest Adults Who Smoke is in Oglala Lakota County, SD (40.3%), Todd County, SD (37.9%) and Kusilvak Census Area, AK (36.9%); the lowest is in Summit County, UT (6.5%), Falls Church city, VA (6.7%) and Arlington County, VA (7%). The median place has 16.1% for Adults Who Smoke and 22.4% for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher.
The biggest exceptions sit furthest from the trend line. Oglala Lakota County, SD, Todd County, SD and Kusilvak Census Area, AK have a much higher Adults Who Smoke than their Bachelor’s Degree or Higher would predict, while Tooele County, UT, Beaver County, UT and Juab County, UT have a much lower one.
This is a comparison across places, not proof that one causes the other: both can follow from something else, such as income, age or how urban a place is. Bachelor’s Degree or Higher is from 2024 and Adults Who Smoke from 2023.
Highest Adults Who Smoke
| Place | Adults Who Smoke | Bachelor’s Degree or Higher |
|---|---|---|
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 40.3% | 11.8% |
| Todd County, SD | 37.9% | 16.6% |
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | 36.9% | 5.78% |
| Sioux County, ND | 33.6% | 16.3% |
| Buffalo County, SD | 32.1% | 9.91% |
Lowest Adults Who Smoke
| Place | Adults Who Smoke | Bachelor’s Degree or Higher |
|---|---|---|
| Summit County, UT | 6.5% | 59.8% |
| Falls Church city, VA | 6.7% | 80.5% |
| Arlington County, VA | 7% | 77.1% |
| Utah County, UT | 7% | 44.4% |
| Los Alamos County, NM | 7.1% | 69.7% |
Explore it yourself
- Open this comparison in the interactive chart to highlight places, change the metrics or colour by party.
- Full ranking and sources for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
- Full ranking and sources for Adults Who Smoke