Do more educated states vote differently?
The share of adults with a college degree predicts a state’s 2024 presidential vote better than almost anything else.
States with higher Bachelor’s Degree or Higher tend to have lower Republican Vote Share.
Very strong link: a correlation of −0.85 across 51 states.CorrelationHow closely two metrics move together, from −1 to +1. Near +1: both rise together. Near −1: one rises as the other falls. Near 0: no clear link.More in the glossary →
Since 2016, the share of adults with a college degree has become one of the clearest dividing lines in American presidential voting. Looking at states as a whole shows how tightly that line now holds.
Each dot in the chart is one of 51 states. The correlation between Bachelor’s Degree or Higher and Republican Vote Share is -0.85, a very strong relationship: about 72% of the differences in Republican Vote Share from place to place line up with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher. Ranked instead of measured, the link is -0.80.
The highest Republican Vote Share is in Wyoming (72.3%), West Virginia (70.0%) and North Dakota (67.5%); the lowest is in District of Columbia (6.47%), Vermont (32.6%) and Maryland (34.3%). The median state has 51.0% for Republican Vote Share and 34.6% for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher.
The biggest exceptions sit furthest from the trend line. Wyoming, North Dakota and Utah have a much higher Republican Vote Share than their Bachelor’s Degree or Higher would predict, while Hawaii, New Mexico and Nevada have a much lower one.
Split by the presidential result, the 31 states where the Republican candidate won average 31.5% for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher and the 20 states where the Democratic candidate won average 41.1% for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher.
This is a comparison across places, not proof that one causes the other: both can follow from something else, such as income, age or how urban a place is. Bachelor’s Degree or Higher is from 2024 and Republican Vote Share from 2024.
Highest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Bachelor’s Degree or Higher |
|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 72.3% | 30.6% |
| West Virginia | 70.0% | 24.1% |
| North Dakota | 67.5% | 32.7% |
| Idaho | 66.9% | 31.8% |
| Oklahoma | 66.2% | 28.3% |
Lowest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Bachelor’s Degree or Higher |
|---|---|---|
| District of Columbia | 6.47% | 64.2% |
| Vermont | 32.6% | 43.8% |
| Maryland | 34.3% | 43.4% |
| Massachusetts | 36.2% | 47.3% |
| Hawaii | 37.5% | 36.1% |
Explore it yourself
- Open this comparison in the interactive chart to highlight places, change the metrics or colour by party.
- Full ranking and sources for Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
- Full ranking and sources for Republican Vote Share