Murder rates and poverty
States with higher poverty rates tend to have higher murder rates, with some large exceptions.
States with higher Poverty Rate tend to have higher Murder Rate.
Strong link: a correlation of 0.62 across 51 states.CorrelationHow closely two metrics move together, from −1 to +1. Near +1: both rise together. Near −1: one rises as the other falls. Near 0: no clear link.More in the glossary →
Murder rates vary several-fold between states. Poverty explains part of that variation, though large exceptions remain.
Each dot in the chart is one of 51 states. The correlation between Poverty Rate and Murder Rate is 0.62, a strong relationship: about 39% of the differences in Murder Rate from place to place line up with Poverty Rate. Ranked instead of measured, the link is 0.65.
The highest Murder Rate is in District of Columbia (16.7), Louisiana (8.7) and New Mexico (8.6); the lowest is in New Hampshire (1.2), Hawaii (1.2) and Maine (1.4). The median state has 3.8 for Murder Rate and 11.8% for Poverty Rate.
The biggest exceptions sit furthest from the trend line. District of Columbia, Alaska and Maryland have a much higher Murder Rate than their Poverty Rate would predict, while Kentucky, West Virginia and New York have a much lower one.
This is a comparison across places, not proof that one causes the other: both can follow from something else, such as income, age or how urban a place is. Poverty Rate is from 2024 and Murder Rate from 2025.
Highest Murder Rate
| Place | Murder Rate | Poverty Rate |
|---|---|---|
| District of Columbia | 16.7 | 15.4% |
| Louisiana | 8.7 | 18.9% |
| New Mexico | 8.6 | 17.8% |
| Alabama | 8.5 | 15.6% |
| Missouri | 7.1 | 12.6% |
Lowest Murder Rate
| Place | Murder Rate | Poverty Rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 1.2 | 7.25% |
| Hawaii | 1.2 | 10.0% |
| Maine | 1.4 | 10.7% |
| Massachusetts | 1.4 | 10.0% |
| North Dakota | 1.5 | 10.8% |
Explore it yourself
- Open this comparison in the interactive chart to highlight places, change the metrics or colour by party.
- Full ranking and sources for Poverty Rate
- Full ranking and sources for Murder Rate