Expensive states vote blue
How a state’s price level lines up with its 2024 presidential vote.
States with higher Price Level tend to have lower Republican Vote Share.
Very strong link: a correlation of −0.77 across 51 states.CorrelationHow closely two metrics move together, from −1 to +1. Near +1: both rise together. Near −1: one rises as the other falls. Near 0: no clear link.More in the glossary →
Expensive states and Democratic states overlap heavily. Prices track density, coastal housing markets and education, all of which also track the vote, so this is a picture of how those things travel together rather than a cause.
Each dot in the chart is one of 51 states. The correlation between Price Level and Republican Vote Share is -0.77, a very strong relationship: about 60% of the differences in Republican Vote Share from place to place line up with Price Level. Ranked instead of measured, the link is -0.80.
The highest Republican Vote Share is in Wyoming (72.3%), West Virginia (70.0%) and North Dakota (67.5%); the lowest is in District of Columbia (6.47%), Vermont (32.6%) and Maryland (34.3%). The median state has 51.0% for Republican Vote Share and 97.1 for Price Level.
The biggest exceptions sit furthest from the trend line. Wyoming, Idaho and Florida have a much higher Republican Vote Share than their Price Level would predict, while District of Columbia, Vermont and New Mexico have a much lower one.
Split by the presidential result, the 31 states where the Republican candidate won average 93.2 for Price Level and the 20 states where the Democratic candidate won average 103.4 for Price Level.
This is a comparison across places, not proof that one causes the other: both can follow from something else, such as income, age or how urban a place is. Price Level is from 2024 and Republican Vote Share from 2024.
Highest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Price Level |
|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 72.3% | 92.7 |
| West Virginia | 70.0% | 89.5 |
| North Dakota | 67.5% | 89.0 |
| Idaho | 66.9% | 95.5 |
| Oklahoma | 66.2% | 87.8 |
Lowest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Price Level |
|---|---|---|
| District of Columbia | 6.47% | 109.9 |
| Vermont | 32.6% | 98.0 |
| Maryland | 34.3% | 105.0 |
| Massachusetts | 36.2% | 105.8 |
| Hawaii | 37.5% | 110.0 |
Explore it yourself
- Open this comparison in the interactive chart to highlight places, change the metrics or colour by party.
- Full ranking and sources for Price Level
- Full ranking and sources for Republican Vote Share