Does climate predict politics?
Warm states and cold states split almost evenly. A useful reminder that not every pair of numbers is linked.
There is no clear link between Average Temperature and Republican Vote Share across states.
No clear link: a correlation of 0.09 across 50 states.CorrelationHow closely two metrics move together, from −1 to +1. Near +1: both rise together. Near −1: one rises as the other falls. Near 0: no clear link.More in the glossary →
Not every pair of numbers is related. A state’s average temperature tells you very little about how it votes: warm and cold states sit on both sides of the line.
Plotting all 50 states shows no clear pattern: the correlation is 0.09, so knowing a place’s Average Temperature tells you almost nothing about its Republican Vote Share.
The highest Republican Vote Share is in Wyoming (72.3%), West Virginia (70.0%) and North Dakota (67.5%); the lowest is in Vermont (32.6%), Maryland (34.3%) and Massachusetts (36.2%). The median state has 51.6% for Republican Vote Share and 52.0 for Average Temperature.
Split by the presidential result, the 31 states where the Republican candidate won average 53.6 for Average Temperature and the 19 states where the Democratic candidate won average 50.6 for Average Temperature.
This is a comparison across places, not proof that one causes the other: both can follow from something else, such as income, age or how urban a place is. Average Temperature is from the latest available year and Republican Vote Share from 2024.
Highest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Average Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | 72.3% | 42.3 |
| West Virginia | 70.0% | 52.6 |
| North Dakota | 67.5% | 41.0 |
| Idaho | 66.9% | 43.9 |
| Oklahoma | 66.2% | 60.3 |
Lowest Republican Vote Share
| Place | Republican Vote Share | Average Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Vermont | 32.6% | 43.0 |
| Maryland | 34.3% | 55.4 |
| Massachusetts | 36.2% | 48.8 |
| Hawaii | 37.5% | 66.3 |
| California | 38.3% | 59.0 |
Explore it yourself
- Open this comparison in the interactive chart to highlight places, change the metrics or colour by party.
- Full ranking and sources for Average Temperature
- Full ranking and sources for Republican Vote Share